KULPER & COMPANY…where academia meets corporate innovation | Kulper & Company

KULPER & COMPANY…where academia meets corporate innovation | Kulper & Company

Preparation for using an executive search firm | Kulper & Company

Preparation for using an executive search firm | Kulper & Company

First Quarter 2013

At the end of 2012 things were a bit uncertain but at that time we knew that 2013 was looking like it could be a great year for our business and the US economy as a whole. We had a friends luncheon in early January and the talk turned to the outlook for the year ahead. People love to be negative in their outlook---what's to lose if you are wrong, right? At that luncheon I spoke up and said that I thought the year ahead looked fantastic---one scoffed---one bet me and another ordered pizza. Well--after 5 weeks my outlook seesm to be proving correct. The signals from Washington remain a bit unclear but one thing is for sure....the US and World economy is itching for a breakout year where new highs in the DOW will be made and GDP will break through 3.5%. Given that is it only February 8th and we are involved with a major snowstorm for the next few days, I thought I would write while our power is still on...to update my wild eyed prediction from that famous luncheon. First...2013 is definitely going to be a record-breaking year for the DOW and the US economy as a whole. I am forecasting DOW 15250 by 12/31/13 and GDP of 3.5% by Q3 Second...we will finally see a meaningful drop in the unemployment rate---should be under 6.25 by 12/31/13-- Third...interest rates will begin to rise by Q4 2013 despite assurances to the contrary by Chairman Bernanke because by Q3 economic growth will be accelerating and calls for FED tightening to avoid a economic overheating will become more insistent. If this scenario plays out what does it mean for our clients? HIRING--HIRING--HIRING Revenue growth Widespread increases in pretax profitablity and tax revenue to help lower the current account deficit Here are a few more predictions both short and longer term: The Democrats will win back control of CONGRESS in 2014. The 2nd half of the Obama Administration will feel like the 2nd half of the Clinton Administration but without the scandals and distractions; President Obama is too smart to let that happen. A Democrat will win the 2016 Presidential election and CONGRESS will continue to be led by the Democrats. GUN Control, Immigration and other progressive legislation will be put into effect. The US will finally assume a leadership role to fight "Global Warming". The mideast will get a little less crazy as more Israelis move to the center and away from the far right or far left; illegal settlements will be dismantled and the Palestiians will be on their way to achieving statehood. China will be an increasingly stronger business and political partner; India, too.... The war on terror will continue but in a much less costly manner in terms of manpower and political capital... Arab spring democracies will struggle to get on their feet but the US, EU, CHINA, Russia and NATO will unite to help pull them up and assure security for their people...and developed countries, too. Is this sounding like a "Golden Age" to you? It should, because that is exactly what it will be. My firm is getting busier every day...may that continue because I love what I do and it is fun to run a successful business that helps people realize their goals. We will always need to have the right leaders who can affect change and drive transformational change. I look forward to your comments and to hearing from you if your organization or institution needs help with an external search.

Kulper & Company | LLC Executive Search Firm

Kulper & Company | LLC Executive Search Firm

With Thanksgiving, the presidential election and Hurricane Sandy all behind us and the hoped for positive resolution of “fiscal cliff” deliberations forthcoming in December, 2013 appears to be shaping up as a real “Lucky Thirteen” year for the US and Global economies.   The secular decline in residential real estate values appears to have ended and because mortgage rates will remain low for most if not all of 2013, could we be set for break-away economic growth?    We were taught many years ago in business school that it is important for executives to have a view of the direction of interest rates but are there any reliable ways to do that? 

 

My favorite professor, at the Stonier Graduate School of Banking, Ed Siegfried, PhD, keeps track of economic indicators and encourages his clients and students to do the same thing.  Regularly keeping track of key economic indicators makes it much easier to view changes in key indicators that can signal important economic inflection points.   Dr. Ed’s Economic Chart is a handy tool for anyone to review and study on a regular basis.  Armed with good information an executive decision maker can greatly enable the achievement of strategic goals for his or her business or university.    

 

Take a look at the most recent version of Dr. Ed’s Economic Chart ---what does it tell you?

Here are a few quick observations of the trends it clearly reveals:

·         Housing Starts are UP

·         GDP is increasing

·         Unemployment is decreasing

·         Rates are stable at all-time lows

·         Inflation is very low

 

Dr. Ed urged us to look at the data and then form our own opinion about the direction of the economy so that we could be effective executive decision makers not adherents to sentiment.  Based upon the trends we are seeing now it is apparent that the economic indicators are “bullish”.   Hiring should be up in an environment like this and assuming Congress resolves the threat of the “fiscal cliff” and we can avoid being drawn into a new war, we should be in for quite a nice period of firm economic growth during 2013-14.  

 

Here is what I think this means for KULPER Clientele----higher education institutions with a focus on research and high quality education and corporate innovators focused on bringing new and better products to market.

 

For UNIVERSITIES:

·         FED Government Agency Funding for Sponsored Research Grants will be UP

·         Enrollment will be UP

·         Long term Debt/Bond funding availability will improve//but slightly higher interest rates are likely after mid/late 2013 as economic growth rates accelerate and the bond market responds.

 

For COMPANIES

·         New product innovation will accelerate and create important competitive advantage/economic growth---this will be a 3 to 5 year trend.

·         Hiring of top talent will be increasingly challenging as the economy gains momentum and the unemployment rate drops.

·         Factory utilization which is running close to 80% right now will continue to increase; new factories will be built and fitted out with state of the art production equipment to accommodate re-tooling requirements.

 

There are more conclusions to be drawn from the data, so I would encourage you to do your own analysis and make use of these objective “headlights” to illuminate your thinking and decision making and then move forward with confidence.

Search Climate: Great time to Look & Seek

As we enter the last month of the first quarter of 2012, I would like to say:"if you are thinking about looking for a new opportunity or seeking to hire right leaders the time is just right".

We have seen quite a few hiring and firing cycles over the past 15 years and as the economy continues to swing in the right direction the time for organizations to hire and individuals to seek career development/advancement through a job change could not be better right now. I think that this periond will last for a while---maybe two years or so, before organizations start to get into a hiring frenzy which will signal the end of the rush. Yes, it is going to get a lot better for individuals seeking to improve their careers during the next 12-24 months, for organizations endeavoring to achieve competitive advantage ----and of course, the overall economy as well.

Organizations seeking to gain market share by aggressively seeking out and recruting top talent during this current period will find themselves ahead of their key competitors in the race for topline revenue and bottom line results--particularly in areas that demand top engineering, science and technology leadership. Likewise, for academic institutions seeking to improve research funding, faculty quality and overall ranking.

The decision makers must be savvy enough to sense that the time is ripe to seek out and hire top talent and then act....or they may miss the currently open window of opportunity.

All the best,
Keith

Keith D. Kulper, President KULPER & COMPANY, LLC Executive Search: Jobs Report--a pleasant surprise...

Keith D. Kulper, President KULPER & COMPANY, LLC Executive Search: Jobs Report--a pleasant surprise...: What will the pundits and naysayers have to say now? Unemployment is now officially reporting in at 8.3 % with over 200,000 jobs being crea...

Jobs Report--a pleasant surprise...

What will the pundits and naysayers have to say now? Unemployment is now officially reporting in at 8.3 % with over 200,000 jobs being created in January 2012. President Obama must have a big smile on his face this morning----the market is reacting positively---should be a great day.

OK----this story has been building for quite a while. Rates have been at historic lows for several years and the FED is promising low rates for another 2 years! We'll see about that, but the Treasury Yield Curve has been pointing the way towards steady recovery for quite some time for anyone who has been paying attention. We, of course, need to remember what brought the world economy down and keep an eye out for those who promote excess, greed and recklessness in the way a school yard bully might. Remember: bullies hate it when someone calls them out and fights back so always have the courage to do that if you see bad behavior in your enterprise, community or institution...you will sleep better at night and you will be taking responsibility for a better future for everyone.

Innovation---entrepreneurship and hiring of bright people focused on making good things happen in their own enterprises and institutions can take heart from today's jobs report. Our business here at KULPER & COMPANY is very solid and we are forecasting a banner year in our area of where "academia meets corporate innovation". The economic pendulum has inexorably swung in the right direction. Yes, there are threats, concerns, issues etc., but this is the time for positive people to take center stage to boldly drive growth, innovation and growth in an honest and sustainable manner.

Bravo! This is great news--enjoy it.

Now let's all get to work and keep our focus on innovation, entrepreneurship and growth and undoubtedly more good things will happen for our economy which will clearly have a positive effect on our families, communities, businesses and, of course, this beautiful world on which we are so blessed to live.


Happy SuperBowl Weekend.....and....Go Giants!
All the best,
Keith