First Quarter 2013

At the end of 2012 things were a bit uncertain but at that time we knew that 2013 was looking like it could be a great year for our business and the US economy as a whole. We had a friends luncheon in early January and the talk turned to the outlook for the year ahead. People love to be negative in their outlook---what's to lose if you are wrong, right? At that luncheon I spoke up and said that I thought the year ahead looked fantastic---one scoffed---one bet me and another ordered pizza. Well--after 5 weeks my outlook seesm to be proving correct. The signals from Washington remain a bit unclear but one thing is for sure....the US and World economy is itching for a breakout year where new highs in the DOW will be made and GDP will break through 3.5%. Given that is it only February 8th and we are involved with a major snowstorm for the next few days, I thought I would write while our power is still on...to update my wild eyed prediction from that famous luncheon. First...2013 is definitely going to be a record-breaking year for the DOW and the US economy as a whole. I am forecasting DOW 15250 by 12/31/13 and GDP of 3.5% by Q3 Second...we will finally see a meaningful drop in the unemployment rate---should be under 6.25 by 12/31/13-- Third...interest rates will begin to rise by Q4 2013 despite assurances to the contrary by Chairman Bernanke because by Q3 economic growth will be accelerating and calls for FED tightening to avoid a economic overheating will become more insistent. If this scenario plays out what does it mean for our clients? HIRING--HIRING--HIRING Revenue growth Widespread increases in pretax profitablity and tax revenue to help lower the current account deficit Here are a few more predictions both short and longer term: The Democrats will win back control of CONGRESS in 2014. The 2nd half of the Obama Administration will feel like the 2nd half of the Clinton Administration but without the scandals and distractions; President Obama is too smart to let that happen. A Democrat will win the 2016 Presidential election and CONGRESS will continue to be led by the Democrats. GUN Control, Immigration and other progressive legislation will be put into effect. The US will finally assume a leadership role to fight "Global Warming". The mideast will get a little less crazy as more Israelis move to the center and away from the far right or far left; illegal settlements will be dismantled and the Palestiians will be on their way to achieving statehood. China will be an increasingly stronger business and political partner; India, too.... The war on terror will continue but in a much less costly manner in terms of manpower and political capital... Arab spring democracies will struggle to get on their feet but the US, EU, CHINA, Russia and NATO will unite to help pull them up and assure security for their people...and developed countries, too. Is this sounding like a "Golden Age" to you? It should, because that is exactly what it will be. My firm is getting busier every day...may that continue because I love what I do and it is fun to run a successful business that helps people realize their goals. We will always need to have the right leaders who can affect change and drive transformational change. I look forward to your comments and to hearing from you if your organization or institution needs help with an external search.

Jobs Report--a pleasant surprise...

What will the pundits and naysayers have to say now? Unemployment is now officially reporting in at 8.3 % with over 200,000 jobs being created in January 2012. President Obama must have a big smile on his face this morning----the market is reacting positively---should be a great day.

OK----this story has been building for quite a while. Rates have been at historic lows for several years and the FED is promising low rates for another 2 years! We'll see about that, but the Treasury Yield Curve has been pointing the way towards steady recovery for quite some time for anyone who has been paying attention. We, of course, need to remember what brought the world economy down and keep an eye out for those who promote excess, greed and recklessness in the way a school yard bully might. Remember: bullies hate it when someone calls them out and fights back so always have the courage to do that if you see bad behavior in your enterprise, community or institution...you will sleep better at night and you will be taking responsibility for a better future for everyone.

Innovation---entrepreneurship and hiring of bright people focused on making good things happen in their own enterprises and institutions can take heart from today's jobs report. Our business here at KULPER & COMPANY is very solid and we are forecasting a banner year in our area of where "academia meets corporate innovation". The economic pendulum has inexorably swung in the right direction. Yes, there are threats, concerns, issues etc., but this is the time for positive people to take center stage to boldly drive growth, innovation and growth in an honest and sustainable manner.

Bravo! This is great news--enjoy it.

Now let's all get to work and keep our focus on innovation, entrepreneurship and growth and undoubtedly more good things will happen for our economy which will clearly have a positive effect on our families, communities, businesses and, of course, this beautiful world on which we are so blessed to live.


Happy SuperBowl Weekend.....and....Go Giants!
All the best,
Keith

Leadership Forum: Sander Flaum at William Paterson University 10 4 11

As part of my service to our clients and friends of KULPER & COMPANY--both in higher ed and industry-- I enjoy helping to foster better understanding and communication among those who actually lead, and those that study leadership.

Because I am member of the Dean's Advisory Board at the Cotsakos College of Business at William Paterson University we have been considering various ways in which we can help the students and raise the profile of our fine college of business--which is AACSB accredited and boasts one of the finest sales leadership and investment training programs anywhere in the country. About 1 year ago we talked about initiating a LEADERSHIP FORUM where I would interview leaders from a wide variety of industries about their views on leadership, their field of endeavor, and how they got to where they are today.

Our guest leader on evening of October 4, 2011 at the CCOB/WPU is Sander Flaum. Sander is one of the thought leaders in the field of marketing for the pharmaceutical field. His firm FLAUM IDEAS is widely acknowledged to be a top national firm well regarded by CEOs and Presidents of global pharmaceutical companies for its help in developing effective new marketing programs.

The Leadership Forum is exclusively for the students, faculty, administrators and invited guests of Dean, Sam Basu--and me. Please let me know if you are interested in upcoming forums.

Best regards
Keith